A Sunday Conversation with.......... Karl Douglass on Muscogee County's 2026 Vote

Keisha Lance Bottoms' victory on Nov. 3 made her the first Black woman elected governor in American history and the first Democrat to win Georgia's governorship since 1998. In Muscogee County, the precinct results show where her margin grew.

A precinct-by-precinct analysis of unofficial results by Ohio River South found that Bottoms won 66.6% of the two-party vote in Muscogee County, up 7.1 points from Stacey Abrams' 59.5% in 2022. Her county margin was 20,676 votes, up from Abrams' 11,224.

About three-fourths of that 9,452-vote gain, 6,984 votes, came from the 12 precincts Republican Gov. Brian Kemp carried in 2022. All 12 are in north and midtown Columbus.

Karl Douglass is a partner at Ohio River South, a political consulting firm with offices in Atlanta and Washington. He has served as a senior adviser to numerous local, state and federal officials.

The Courier Eco Latino reviewed the firm's findings and asked Douglass what the numbers mean for Columbus.

The interview

Q: The headline of Ohio River South's analysis is "Kemp's Precincts Moved Muscogee." What does that mean?

Douglass: It means the growth in Democratic votes cast in this election in Columbus came from the north side and in midtown. Kemp carried 12 precincts here in 2022. The Democratic share in those 12 went from 39.6% to 50.3%, a 10.7-point move in four years. They produced 6,984 of the 9,452 votes Bottoms added to the Democratic margin.

Bottoms won six of those precincts outright. Jon Ossoff won 10 of them in the Senate race. Precincts that were Republican ground four years ago are now competitive, and some are Democratic.

The movement wasn't uniform. Wynnbrook, which has the highest share of $100,000-plus households in the county, moved 6.8 points. Middle-income precincts moved nearly twice that: Ambassadors Church 13.3, Chattahoochee Church 13.2, Britt David 13.0, Beallwood Baptist Church 12.4. Census data describes who lives in a precinct, not who voted, so I hold that loosely. Still, the biggest shifts came in middle-income neighborhoods, and the wealthiest moved least.

Q: Bottoms won 19 of Muscogee County's 25 precincts, compared with 13 for Abrams in 2022. What does that tell us about the changing political makeup of Columbus?

Douglass: Bottoms received 41,439 votes to Rick Jackson's 20,763. Abrams beat Kemp here by 11,224 votes. Bottoms won by 20,676.

One number people will miss: Muscogee moved 7.1 points toward the Democrat, and Georgia as a whole moved 8.1. Columbus didn't outpace the state. The Democratic base precincts in south Columbus were already above 90% Democratic in 2022, so they had little room to move. Nearly all the room was in north and midtown.

So the answer has two parts. The Democratic coalition held at full strength in the south and grew in the north. Whether that growth came from new residents, changed minds or Republicans staying home is the next question, and precinct totals can't answer it alone.

Q: The largest Democratic gains came in north and midtown Columbus, areas that have historically supported Republicans. What could explain that shift?

Douglass: Start with what the numbers prove. In Kemp's 12 precincts, Jackson received 2,734 fewer votes than Kemp did, even though votes cast in those precincts rose 3.8%. He ran behind Kemp in every one of the 12.

That fits two explanations. Some Republican voters crossed over. Others stayed home while new or occasional voters showed up for Bottoms. Precinct results can't separate those motivations.

What I can say is that the shift ran down the ballot. Ossoff ran ahead of Bottoms in all 25 precincts, by the widest margins in the most Republican ones. At least 1,774 people who voted for Jackson also voted for Ossoff. Four precincts, Britt David, Morningside Baptist Church, St. Paul and St. Peter, voted for Jackson for governor and Ossoff for Senate. Those are persuadable voters, and they live in north and midtown Columbus.

Q: The report shows the shift was already under way in the 2024 presidential election. Is this a long-term trend?

Douglass: In those 12 precincts the Democratic share went from 39.6% for Abrams in 2022 to 45.4% for Kamala Harris in 2024 to 50.3% for Bottoms. About half the movement had shown up by 2024.

A presidential race draws a different electorate than a governor's race, so I read the 2024 number as a sign of direction. Three elections pointing the same way is still a trend.

The base precincts tell a different story. Harris got 87.5% there in 2024, below Abrams' 90.4%. Bottoms brought it back to 91.5%. The north has moved steadily, while the base dipped and recovered.

Q: Traditional Democratic precincts in south Columbus stayed relatively stable. What does that contrast tell us?

Douglass: The eight base precincts, where Abrams topped 80% in 2022, gave Bottoms 91.5% of the two-party vote. Their share moved 1.1 points. You can't add much margin when you start above 90%.

What they added was votes. Votes cast there rose 6.4%, the fastest growth of any group of precincts. Gateway at Abundant Life grew 13.3% and Canaan 9.4%. Together the base precincts added 1,538 votes to the county margin, about 16% of the gain.

The larger opportunity is still on the table. Turnout in the base precincts was 42.5% of registered voters. In Kemp's old precincts it was 53.1%. Had the base turned out at that rate, it would have cast about 5,200 more ballots. Across the county, turnout tracked income: 56.8% in the third of precincts with the most high-income households and 38.0% in the lowest third. That gap is the largest lever left in Muscogee County politics.

Q: Six precincts in north and midtown Columbus finished within three points of an even split. Could they become the battlegrounds in future local elections?

Douglass: They already are. Chattahoochee Church, St. Andrews, Britt David, Morningside Baptist Church, St. Paul and St. Peter all finished within three points of 50-50 in the governor's race. Kemp carried all six in 2022.

Britt David is the sharpest example. Jackson won it by six votes, 638 to 632. Down the ballot, state Rep. Carmen Rice lost Britt David by three votes and Chattahoochee Church by 82.

Every competitive countywide or legislative contest in Columbus in 2027 and 2028 runs through these six precincts. 

Q: Republican state Sen. Randy Robertson and state Rep. Carmen Rice won re-election, but their margins in Muscogee County narrowed. What do these results say about Republican strength here?

Douglass: Both won their full districts comfortably, Robertson with 57.8% in Senate District 29 and Rice with 55.8% in House District 139. Inside Muscogee County it was close.

Robertson received 12,980 votes in the Muscogee portion of his district to 12,496 for Democrat Jeff Lowe, or 50.9%. Four years ago he had 61.8% of the Muscogee vote. Lowe carried four of the nine Muscogee precincts in the district. Rice received 8,290 votes in Muscogee to 7,963 for Democrat Elliot Valdez, or 51.0%.

In precincts wholly inside their districts, both ran within about a point and a half of Jackson. Incumbency gave them almost no cushion in Columbus. Their seats rest on the counties outside Muscogee. If those counties move the way north Columbus did, these districts become competitive.

Q: Voters generally supported legislative candidates from the same party as their choice for governor. Is party becoming more influential than the individual candidate?

Douglass: In legislative races, yes. In every contested legislative race, the Democrat's share in precincts wholly inside the district landed within 1.5 points of Bottoms'. Fewer than 1% of governor voters in those precincts skipped the legislative race. People voted the whole ballot, and they voted it the same way.

The Senate race is the exception. Ossoff won 70.0% in Muscogee, 3.4 points ahead of Bottoms, and carried 23 of 25 precincts. Raphael Warnock ran about as far ahead of Abrams here in 2022. A candidate with a strong personal brand can still pull voters across party lines. For most legislative candidates, though, the statewide environment will matter more.

Q: Turnout increased in some precincts and declined in others. How important will participation be in future elections?

Douglass: Votes cast in the governor's race rose from 59,462 in 2022 to 62,202 this year, up 4.6%. In all, 48.0% of registered voters cast a ballot.

The county total hides the neighborhoods. New Mt. Zion cast 6.0% fewer votes than in 2022, 2,137 against 2,274. Marianna Gallops was down 5.0%, 927 against 976. Those were the two steepest declines in the county in a year when the county as a whole grew. Bottoms still improved on Abrams in both.

Watch Election Day, too. In 2022, Kemp won Muscogee's Election Day vote, and Abrams took 46.2% of it. This year Bottoms won the Election Day vote with 55.6%. Republicans in this county have relied on Election Day to narrow the early-vote gap. In 2026 it widened instead.

Q: Given the shifting patterns in Muscogee County, what should both parties take away from 2026?

Douglass: Neither party has all the answers, so I'll speak to both.

Republicans should take the north and midtown numbers seriously. Their Election Day edge is gone in this county, their vote fell in all 12 of Kemp's precincts, and at least 8.5% of Jackson's voters also chose Ossoff. They can win those voters back if they stop assuming the 2022 map still holds.

Democrats should resist reading 66.6% as a mandate. The county moved less than the state did. The base is near its ceiling on share and well below its potential on turnout. The precincts that delivered this year's margin voted Republican four years ago, and they can go back.

For both parties the work is the same: know these neighborhoods precinct by precinct and give people a reason to show up.

Q: Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election and future municipal elections, is Muscogee County going through a permanent political transformation or a temporary shift driven by 2026?

Douglass: Three elections in a row have moved Kemp's old precincts toward Democrats. That's more than one candidate's coattails. I'm not ready to call it permanent.

Three things will settle it. First, the voter history file, which will show whether 2026 was crossover or drop-off. If Republicans crossed over, Democrats have new voters to keep. If Republicans stayed home, they can come back in 2028. Second, the 2028 presidential race, which will show whether north and midtown hold with different names at the top of the ticket. Third, our municipal races, which are nonpartisan and will test whether these patterns survive without party labels on the ballot.

What I'd tell anyone running in Columbus is that the old map, a Democratic south and a Republican north, no longer describes this county. North and midtown are contested now, and that changes who every candidate needs to talk to.

About the analysis

Ohio River South compared all 25 Muscogee County precincts across the 2022 and 2026 governor's races, the 2022 and 2026 U.S. Senate races and the 2024 presidential race. Shares are of the two-party vote.

The 2026 figures are unofficial results from the Georgia Secretary of State. The Muscogee County elections board scheduled certification to follow its Nov. 9 meeting, and small changes are possible. The 2022 and 2024 figures come from OpenElections precinct files built from state returns.